By Victor Fanuel
HARARE – Zimbabwe is edging toward the same dangerous succession impasse that triggered the 2017 coup, renowned social and economic activist Obert Masaraure warns.
In a hard-hitting open letter to President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Masaraure argues that unresolved battles over who should lead Zanu PF are destabilizing governance and forcing ordinary citizens to bear the economic burden of elite power struggles.
His analysis highlights the conflation of Zanu PF’s intra-party politics with the government.
Masaraure likened the current succession climate to Robert Mugabe’s final years, when his refusal to handpick a successor plunged the country into turmoil.
“Former leader Robert Mugabe’s reluctance to name a successor or allow the selection of one, no doubt, fostered deep-rooted factionalism, empowered opportunistic individuals, and destabilized not only the ruling party but the nation,” wrote Masaraure.
“Today, Your Excellency, there are troubling echoes of that same toxic environment that spiraled into the military-assisted coup.
“Your reluctance to publicly outline a clear succession plan is fostering similar factional tensions, reminiscent of the events that led to your predecessor’s demise and the November 2017 coup,” he added.
He warned that Zanu PF’s survival tactics are eclipsing governance, leaving millions of Zimbabweans to shoulder the economic cost of elite power struggles.
Currently, three rival camps are pulling Zanu PF apart. Some of Mnangagwa’s loyalists are pushing for him to remain in power beyond 2028, determined to extend his influence and maintain continuity within the party.
Vice President Constantino Chiwenga’s military-backed bloc is positioning itself as the eventual successor, waiting for an opportunity to assert control and safeguard the armed forces’ interests within party politics.
Meanwhile, businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei’s emergence in mainstream politics is being interpreted by some insiders as Mnangagwa’s preferred succession plan.
In the letter, Masaraure warned that Tagwirei’s rise mirrored the unconventional and disruptive ascent of former First Lady Grace Mugabe before 2017, signaling how private interests now dictate public policy.
“The growing political profile of businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a sanctioned figure whose wealth and proximity to power resemble the patronage model that propelled Grace Mugabe, risks creating a perception of leadership capture by private interests,” wrote Masaraure.
The infighting is already spilling into public view. Zanu PF spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa contradicted party secretary of legal affairs Patrick Chinamasa, who had announced that Tagwirei was officially inducted into the central committee, calling the decision “irreversibly settled.”
Mutsvangwa dismissed Chinamasa’s statement as a “personal opinion,” asserting that he, as party spokesperson, speaks for Zanu PF and its president.
Recently, local government minister Daniel Garwe, who doubles as Zanu PF Mashonaland East provincial chairperson, publicly floated the idea of “no elections in 2028,” remarks which some analysts say confirm attempts to revive the ambitious push by Mnangagwa’s allies to extend his second and final term by two years.
These signals, Masaraure argued, show a ruling party prioritizing survival over governance.
“If such utterances are left unchecked, these developments could fracture the ruling party, which is conflated with our government, in ways that compromise national stability and economic governance,” wrote Masaraure, weighing in on Garwe’s remarks.
“For the ordinary citizen, that would again mean delayed salary adjustments for teachers, inconsistent allowances for civil servants, and a widening poverty gap for informal traders who rely on a predictable economic environment.”
He added that Mnangagwa’s prolonged silence on the succession issue is dragging Zimbabwe back into paralysis and warned that it may be too late for the incumbent to manage the crisis.
“Mr President, maybe it’s now too late for you to manage the succession. The factions may have lost faith in you,” wrote Masaraure.
“Look across the Limpopo and consider Ramaphosa’s national dialogue model.
“That way, you broaden the discussion on Zimbabwe’s future.
“You have an opportunity to rescue your legacy by allowing citizens to dialogue on the direction they want Zimbabwe to take post your leadership,” further wrote Masaraure.
Masaraure urged Mnangagwa to implement institutional and electoral reforms before his tenure expires.
“Dedicate the last two years of your term to instituting the reforms the people so much desire.
“It is apparent that Zanu PF alone won’t allow you to implement the reforms desired by the nation.
“Rope in a Transitional Council to spearhead the transition agenda within your government,” he added.
